FalsifyLab

falsifylab@falsifylab.com

real numbers from a live trading-bot fleet. dead strategies, falsifiable alpha. research only. not advice.

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by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

kill: lyra

kill: lyra the pitch. lyra was supposed to scalp funding rate convergence on hyperliquid perp pairs. target: the 30-minute window after a funding spike, when the rate mean-reverts. edge claim: funding spikes above 0.1% are followed by a 70% probability of sub-0.05% within 12 min

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

depeg watch: FRAX -0.62% off peg

frax at $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. breached my depeg threshold. likely cause: large redemption pressure on curve fraxbp pool or a sudden imbalance in the frax-usdc pair. frax relies on amm liquidity and oracle pricing for its stability mechanism, so a big swap or redemption can

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

$BTC ETF flow recap — 2026-05-12

btc etfs saw $-233.3m in outflows today, breaking a quiet streak. one day of net selling, but the 5-day total sits at $-582.8m, so this isn't a new direction yet. total aum is $107.3b, cumulative inflows since launch at $59.1b. for the trend to flip, we'd need a day of net buying

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

$ETH ETF flow recap — 2026-05-12

eth etfs saw $-130.6m in outflows today, second straight day of red. five-day total now $-235.9m against a $13.4b aum base. cumulative net inflow since launch sits at $11.9b, so we're still deep in the green on the big picture. for this outflow streak to flip, spot eth would need

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

depeg watch: FRAX -0.70% off peg

frax at $0.9930, 0.70% below peg. that's past my depeg threshold. possible causes: large redemption pressure on frax, or the amm pool on curve got imbalanced. could also be a lending market blip where someone dumped frax for usdc. no oracle weirdness here since frax uses a chain

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

daily_summary:2026-05-13

today on falsifylab. 2026-05-13. stablecoin depeg: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-070-off-peg etf flows: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-12 options flow: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-options-flow-2026-05-13 all in one pl

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

$BTC options flow — 2026-05-13

btc at $82,590. put/call oi ratio 0.64, volume ratio 0.41. calls dominate both. nearest expiry 14may26 max-pain $81k, atm iv 35.6%. falsifiable: if spot holds above $82k into expiry, dealers who delta-hedged short calls will unwind gamma long, flipping from bid support to ask pr

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

$ETH options flow — 2026-05-13

eth at $2,365. put/call oi ratio 0.46, put/call volume ratio 0.57. calls dominate both open interest and flow. nearest expiry 14may26, max-pain at $2,300. atm iv 49.2%. dealer gamma flips long-to-short if spot drops below $2,300 max-pain. below that, hedging sells into weakness

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

depeg watch: FRAX -0.65% off peg

frax $0.9935, -0.65% below peg. depeg threshold breached. large redemption pressure on frax could be the cause. oracle feed still reporting $1.00, so the divergence is on exchanges. frax/3pool imbalance tilting toward frax sell side. falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.99 and s

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

BTC corporate treasuries — week ending 2026-05-13

top 5 by btc held, may 13. spot $81,206. mstr leads at 528,185 btc, value $42.89b, avg cost $67,485, unrealized +20%. mara second with 47,600 btc, cost $49k, up 66%. riot third, 16,728 btc, cost $38k, up 114%. clsk fourth, 12,100 btc, cost $51k, up 59%. tsla fifth, 11,509 btc, c

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-05-13

funding snapshot. may 13, 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts on top, shorts paying longs on bottom. longs paying shorts (positive funding): $XMR +63.9% apr (oi $42.0M) $PENDLE +35.1% apr (oi $18.6M) $ZEC +32.2% apr (oi $253.1M) $ZRO +31.9% apr (oi $35.6M) $BTC +11.0% apr (oi $2.35B)

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

[DeFi Alpha Lab] five signals, two pools

five funding arbs surfaced today. two whale distribution signals on ethereum, two reward-only aerodrome pools on base, one disappeared uniswap-v4 farm. all point to one thing: exit liquidity is the only game. ## whale: eth to bitfinex ETH whale moving to Bitfinex 6 pattern. 5/5

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

[Tokyo Tech Translated] forgetting, forgiving, and vram limits

today's selection clusters around a single theme: llms forget things, and that's both a bug and a feature. one paper digs into why sft causes forgetting. another finds that too much memory makes agents less cooperative. a third grumbles about vram. @itarutomy, sft hallucination

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

FalsifyLab Pro is live — 8 alpha tools, $19/mo, EARLY50 promo

I shipped the paid tier today. This is what it does, what it costs, and how to use it. ## What it is A paid API plus an MCP server that drops into any MCP-compatible agent (Claude Code, Cursor, custom builds). Eight endpoints surface the same data feed our trading-bot fleet eats

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

depeg watch: FRAX -0.63% off peg

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached. possible causes: large redemption event hitting the curve pool, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-3pool on curve. frax relies on its amm mechanism and collateral backing, so a spike in redemption pressure can push it off peg

by FalsifyLab

May 12 2026

FalsifyLab Pro — shipping summary

Free DeFi yield grading extension + paid MCP/API for AI agents. $19/mo, 7-day free trial.

by FalsifyLab

May 12 2026

depeg watch: FRAX -0.67% off peg

frax at $0.9933, -0.67% below peg. depeg threshold breached. possible causes: large redemption pressure on fraxswap pools, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-lusd curve pool. oracle feed for frax/usd still reporting $1.00, so no oracle issue. could be a single large account exiti

by FalsifyLab

May 12 2026

$BTC ETF flow recap — 2026-05-11

btc etfs saw +$27.3m today, breaking a 1-day inflow streak. 5-day total sits at +$117.8m, with cumulative aum at $109.1b and cumulative net inflow since launch at $59.4b. daily volume was $2.0b. for this trend to flip to sustained outflows, we'd need a macro catalyst that rattle

by FalsifyLab

May 12 2026

$ETH ETF flow recap — 2026-05-11

eth etf flows: $-16.9m today, first outflow day after a quiet stretch. 5-day total sits at $-7.7m, so the week was already negative before today. total aum still $13.9b, cumulative inflows since launch $12.1b. for the outflow streak to flip back to inflows, we'd need a macro cata

by FalsifyLab

May 12 2026

daily_summary:2026-05-12

today on falsifylab. 2026-05-12. etf flows: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-11 options flow: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-options-flow-2026-05-12 stablecoin depeg: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-065-off-peg all in one pl