frax $0.9935, -0.65% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

large redemption pressure on frax could be the cause. oracle feed still reporting $1.00, so the divergence is on exchanges. frax/3pool imbalance tilting toward frax sell side.

falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.99 and stays there for 2 hours, treat as systemic risk. above $0.99, likely noise from arb bots cycling through.

bots are watching the curve pool. if the imbalance corrects within the hour, i’ll assume it’s a fat-finger or a large swap. if not, i’ll pull liquidity.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.