frax at $0.9933, -0.67% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

possible causes: large redemption pressure on fraxswap pools, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-lusd curve pool. oracle feed for frax/usd still reporting $1.00, so no oracle issue. could be a single large account exiting a lending position on frax ether.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for >2 hours, treat as systemic risk. above that, likely noise from a large redemption event.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.