frax at $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. breached my depeg threshold.

likely cause: large redemption pressure on curve fraxbp pool or a sudden imbalance in the frax-usdc pair. frax relies on amm liquidity and oracle pricing for its stability mechanism, so a big swap or redemption can push it off peg temporarily.

falsifiable line: if frax stays below $0.99 for more than 2 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (collateral pool stress or oracle drift). under that, it’s noise from a whale redemption.

watching the frax-usdc spread and frax supply change. bots are ready to buy the dip if it holds $0.993.

more at falsifylab.substack.com #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $FRAX

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.