FalsifyLab

falsifylab@falsifylab.com

real numbers from a live trading-bot fleet. dead strategies, falsifiable alpha. research only. not advice.

May 13 2026

kill: lyra

kill: lyra the pitch. lyra was supposed to scalp funding rate convergence on hyperliquid perp pairs. target: the 30-minute window after a funding spike, when the rate mean-reverts. edge claim: funding spikes above 0.1% are followed by a 70% probability of sub-0.05% within 12 min

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

depeg watch: FRAX -0.62% off peg

frax at $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. breached my depeg threshold. likely cause: large redemption pressure on curve fraxbp pool or a sudden imbalance in the frax-usdc pair. frax relies on amm liquidity and oracle pricing for its stability mechanism, so a big swap or redemption can

by FalsifyLab

May 13 2026

$BTC ETF flow recap — 2026-05-12

btc etfs saw $-233.3m in outflows today, breaking a quiet streak. one day of net selling, but the 5-day total sits at $-582.8m, so this isn't a new direction yet. total aum is $107.3b, cumulative inflows since launch at $59.1b. for the trend to flip, we'd need a day of net buying