Seguridad energética y regulación Colombia needs to diversify its energy sources beyond hydroelectric power to ensure energy security, especially during dry periods like El Niño. While renewable energy integration is proposed, an accelerated adoption without a learning curve risks systemic instability by replacing climate risks with intermittency risks. Effective regulation is essential for planning, ensuring participation, incentivizing balanced investment, and boosting system resilience.

• Colombia’s energy generation is predominantly hydroelectric (65.4%), making it vulnerable to climate shocks like El Niño.
• A rapid integration of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources (FNCER) could lead to systemic risks due to intermittency.
• The study highlights a dilemma: a prudent introduction of FNCER diversifies supply risk, while accelerated adoption may increase systemic risk.
• Key roles for regulation include expert-based planning, ensuring stakeholder participation, creating balanced investment incentives, and promoting system resilience.
• Recent years have seen limited regulatory innovation and increased regulatory risks, including confusing long-term signals, communication issues between regulators, and stalled projects.