There is an old saying that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Today, watching Beast Games with my daughter, that proverb was all I could think about. I watched a room full of people pass up $100,000 just for the chance to win $5 million.

I understand $5 million is a fortune, but there is no guarantee that you’ll survive the gauntlet of games and puzzles required to beat 99 other people. Right there, staring them in the face, was a guaranteed $100,000. Yet, many didn’t take it.

Opportunities like that don’t come every day. Rarely do people get the chance to simply walk across a line and be handed a briefcase containing a hundred grand.

It is fascinating that, given a big enough carrot, people will abandon their logic. If a stranger on the street said, “Cross this line and I’ll give you $100,000,” anyone would run toward the prize. But on a game show, blinded by the prospect of “life-changing” money, people forgo the life-changing money that is already within their grasp.

I watched as 10 players made the smart decision to walk across the line and take the guarantee.

It made me wonder: How many times do we pass up the “easy” because of the hope we have in the “hard”? Our emotions drive us to look past logic.

At the end of the day, it is just math.

With 100 contestants remaining and a $5 million prize, the Expected Value (EV) per person is only $50,000:

EV = (1/100) × $5,000,000 = $50,000

The offer on the table was $100,000.

They were being offered double the statistical value of their spot in the game. By taking the money, they technically beat the odds. They won.

The bird in the hand is definitely worth more. Until it’s not… Do the math.