Exactly a month ago I outlined my asset allocation themes for 2026 in my “Asset allocation themes for 2026” note at https://primal.net/OostLog/d35df09fd426ad6b.

I seeded this portfolio with $1m starting capital (now up to $1.065m) and intend to occasionally provide updates on its performance as well as all rebalancing trades I implement. This is not meant as financial advice for anyone, and I am merely a guy using this forum to organise my own thoughts on the matter. Nostr seems the right place to do so.

What should also be noted is that I am a big Bitcoin guy, and personally very overweight on it. In an era of sound money, I would like to think I might not have been a person investing every last cent of their net worth in the markets like this, and my large BTC holdings are really a reflection of that. It’s cash. Nevertheless, I have a family and financial obligations, and therefore have some liquidity requirements outside of Bitcoin.

From an investing style perspective, I strongly believe in thematic investing. We can all see which way the world is going in broad strokes: AI and automation, conflict and war, a struggle for resources, currency debasement and the fiat complex failing. Over the next 10-20 years these aren’t going away and are only going one direction, if perhaps not in a straight line. I seek out these macro themes, stick with them and ride it out. Not super interested in overtrading short term volatility or overcomplicating matters. Simplicity rules.

So without further ado, over the first month the model portfolio is up +6.51% or $0.065m. Over the same period the MSCI All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI) returned 1.52% hence we observed a 499bps outperformance. The table below summarises things:

A few general observations:

• Europe defence was a clear winner in the first month
  NATO / WDEF were standout performers, reflecting a now structural repricing of European defence spending which has - especially given all the noise around Greenland - become unavoidable rather than cyclical. The project and order pipelines across these ETFs look astonishing

• Energy constraints are being repriced, led by nuclear (and now copper)
  NLR (and COPX which was later added: https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqstya3lj4mdqx8xfy90amj4vnatza3t8wmz2pkjmsr0cju5r2qrktqxkqkqw) outperformed on rising power demand from AI, grids, and electrification, with nuclear increasingly accepted as necessary, reflecting capacity scarcity.

• Gold beats Bitcoin; tech and healthcare show dispersion
  Gold outperformed in the geopolitics heavy regime we have been in, while Bitcoin lagged. Tech and healthcare returns were mixed, which is completely fine as that added a bit of balance to the portfolio.

Now in terms of the minor tweaks I have made to the portfolio:

• Added to the energy / power theme via copper exposure
  In terms of my copper add: the world is going to need more electricity, copper is essential to deliver it, and we are not set up to produce much more of it quickly. Prices will adjust higher. With this, the energy theme is essentially increased from 7.5% to 12.2% overall, divided between copper, nuclear and general energy industry exposure. I partly funded this from EM local currency debt, which I expect to perform well but is slower moving and therefore more of a funding source.

• Sticking with the winners while resetting the gold/bitcoin balance
  Gold has outperformed Bitcoin, and while I am mindful this might continue, I generally will for now rebalance into the underperformer, a strategy that I think will pay windfalls the next years. I am letting Europe defence stick with its organically grown weight (7.5% to 8.2%).

• Tolerating some weaker performance without making major changes
  Healthcare and tech lagged, in the case of healthcare especially on medical devices, as some of the bigger names in the ETF (e.g. Abbott) posted some disappointing results. This theme has therefore naturally declined from 5.0% to 4.6% and I am happy to let it sit there for a while, longer term it should be well supported.

Alright - that’s it. Not sure how frequently I will do these updates, perhaps once a month or once a quarter. Please feel free to shoot me any suggestions.