Solo Bitcoin Mining vs. the Lottery — Who Has Better Odds?

Two ASIC miners. ~3.15 TH/s. €12/month in electricity. And statistically 200× better odds than buying a lottery ticket.
Solo Bitcoin Mining vs. the Lottery — Who Has Better Odds?

The smallest miner has the same chance per hash as the largest data center on Earth.

by Alien Investor

#Bitcoin #Mining #Sovereignty #NoKYC #FinancialFreedom

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“Most people think solo Bitcoin mining is pointless. They’re comparing it to the wrong thing.”

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Most people assume Bitcoin mining is only for industrial data centers.

That’s true — if you’re talking about profitable mining.

But that’s not what this is about.

This is about sovereignty, lottery logic, and a number that surprised me.

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My Setup

I run two small ASIC miners on my own Umbrel node using the Public Pool app:

  • BitForgeNano Ghost — 2× BM1370 chips, ~2.15 TH/s on Medium, ~40W
  • NerdAxe Gamma — 1× BM1370 chip, ~1.00 TH/s, ~17W
  • Total: ~3.15 TH/s at ~57W

Both connect to my own pool. No third party. No fees. No KYC.

If a block is found, 3.125 BTC lands directly in my wallet. No middleman. No forms. No authority.

Both devices are from nerdminer.de — not a paid sponsorship. I recommend them because Julius and Timo resolved a hardware issue immediately without any hassle. Best service I’ve ever experienced.

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The Math

The Bitcoin network currently runs at approximately 1.1 ZH/s — a historical all-time high.

My annual odds of finding a block:

52,560 blocks/year × (3.15 TH/s ÷ 1,100,000 TH/s) ≈ 1 in 6,700

Now the German national lottery (6/49):

  • Jackpot odds per draw: 1 in 139,838,160
  • 2 draws per week = 104 per year
  • Annual jackpot odds: 1 in ~1,350,000

Result: my mining setup has roughly 200× better annual odds than the lottery.

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The Real Difference

The lottery costs money per ticket — every week, every draw, forever.

Two tickets a week at €3 each = ~€312/year. For a game you’re going to lose.

My mining setup costs ~€12/month in electricity. That’s it.

And when mining “wins”:

❌ Lottery jackpot → taxed, identity-verified, paid through a government agency

✅ Bitcoin block → straight into your own wallet. No KYC. No authority. Real self-custody.

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What This Is Not

Solo mining is not a viable income strategy.

The expected time until finding a block with this setup is thousands of years. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.

This is a lottery. A sovereignty experiment. A philosophical statement about permissionless money.

Not an investment. Not a recommendation.

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Conclusion

Viewed as a lottery: solo mining wins — statistically, financially, and philosophically.

It runs in the background. On your own node. Without asking anyone.

That’s the point.

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Disclaimer: Some links are affiliate links. Using them supports this channel at no extra cost to you.

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Money, power, Bitcoin — and OPSEC. I write about financial sovereignty, privacy, and cybersecurity in a world built on control. More at alien-investor.org 👽


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